Here in central Florida, things have been rough for the last couple of years!
We saw the "boom" of 2004-2006 and the "bust" of 2007-2009. Many cities in Florida are still in a massive "over supply" situation with continued declines in home prices.
However, not all markets are the same. In each appraisal report I write, I routinely compile trend analysis for a radius of similar homes around the home being appraised. In this case, condominiums in the Disney tourist area along US 192.
Even with 16 years of appraisal experience, it is still tough to call a market "stable" or make statements like "the market appears to have reached a bottom" when all the media outlets are still talking about declining home prices and "bargain" prices!
For sure, prices are now a bargain! But the numbers tell another part of the story - and that is - things have hit the bottom!
I was pleased when the Florida Realtors Association and the National Association of Realtors reported recently the same trends. You can see their article at http://bit.ly/marketbottom
Still, I have internal fears of more foreclosures hitting the markets, extending days on market and possibly eating away at this "bottom" which has appeared. But each month and quarter which passes reveals a couple of trends to look out for:
Another key factor to consider is month to month changes. This can be compiled easily through MLS statistics or even from exporting data from the local assessor's records. The main thing to consider is not just the changes quarter to quarter or month to month - but also where things stand now as compared to the beginning of the year. Maybe there were a couple of "hiccups" of either recovery or decline - but is the overall trend moving up, down or sideaways?
As you can see - performing residential appraisals is no easy task these days. It isn't just 3 comps on a grid and one certainly cannot just get a "feel" for a value of a property. In fact, if the appraiser you hire is not measuring the market in this fashion - I would question his/her ability to know what the current trends are in the area. In many appraisal reviews I have completed, I find appraisers who lag behind the curve because they are relying on the media's perception of the market, rather than crunching the numbers as they occur!
Expect more from an appraiser these days. Just because changes like the HVCC and appraisal management companies have given many residential appraisers a bad taste in their mouth for their own profession and future outlook - does not exempt them from doing the required due diligence for each and every appraisal - regardless of what their fees are these days. If you Google HVCC and appraisal management companies together with "appraiser" - you will likely find many strong opinions from appraisers about the fees, turn times, etc which are being demanded of them.
Bottom line is this: An appraisal should be complete, thorough, credible and above all....supported by relevant, recent data. Accept nothing less - and you will get the real truth in your market.
Make it a GREAT day!
AUTHOR: Richard D Ferris - AmcAppraisalsinc.com Phone 877-789-5249 or email me: firstname.lastname@example.org
Richard D. FerrisAMCAppraisalsinc.email@example.com(877) 789-5249One # Does It All - Voice/Fax
Residential Appraisals in Lake, Orange, Osceola, Polk, and Seminole Counties.
Also servicing Deltona, Deland, and Orange City in Volusia County.
Florida State Certified Residential Appraiser #RD4088
FHA Certified : Associate Member Appraisal Institute
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